Inflation: Not all price rises are equal
This week inflation in the US hit a number not seen for 40 years, as prices rose on average 7% from December 2020 to December 2021. Not all inflation is created equal Within that overall measure the...
Dollar-and-a-quarter Tree: Inflation comes for us all, eventually
Everything for a buck In 1986 the first five locations opened of a new retail outlet, which had a simple premise for what it would sell, and an even simpler name — "Only $1.00". Although not the firs...
Inflation: Prices are rising at their fastest pace for 30 years
We'd rather not be charting about inflation when there's so much else going on in the world, but when the data is doing something it hasn't done for more than 30 years, it's hard to ignore. Consumer p...
Stocks: They fell 2%+ yesterday, as inflation worries mount
Stock markets around the world did something quite unusual for 2021 yesterday — they fell more than 2% in value. For US stocks (S&P 500 index) that's something they haven't done for almost 5 months. ...
Inflation: People are worried about it and the latest numbers are hot off the press
This week stock markets have been under pressure as investor worries about meaningfully higher inflation have begun to go mainstream. Indeed just last week we wrote about the price of lumber , which h...
Visualizing the US stock market: We put yesterday's stock market moves into some recent context
US stock markets fell almost 2.5% yesterday, as fears about rising inflation spread from the bond market into stocks. In more normal times, a fall of that magnitude would usually rank among the worst ...
Inflation: Markets are anticipating higher inflation in the future
Is inflation coming? Markets are now beginning to price in the possibility that meaningful inflation returns to the US economy. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which is essentially a market mea...
50 years of US unemployment: Biden has inherited the reins of a fragile economy — we get some historical context
Joe Biden is officially in the Oval Office. In his first few days as President, Biden focused his attention on repealing a number of Executive Orders put in place by his predecessor, before turning hi...
Investors think Corporate America’s ability to crank up prices is over
I know it gets a bad rap, but post-Covid inflation was pretty darn good for corporate America. Corporations were able to ramp up prices almost at will, boosting profit margins to levels not seen since...
Investors are freaking out that the Fed is too late to save the economy
The US consumer is the engine of the domestic – and the global – economy. The US consumer needs jobs and income growth to spend money and propel corporate profits and the stock market higher. Right no...
Market wrap: S&P 500 hit the skids on downbeat economic data
The S&P 500 slumped 1.4% as a spate of bad data raised fears that the Federal Reserve might be too late in cutting interest rates to support the economy. The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 2.4% and the Russell 20...
10-year Treasury yields sink below 4% for the first time since February
10-year Treasury yields breached the 4% threshold for the first time in about half a year on Thursday morning, as: 1. Initial jobless claims jumped, the latest in a series of data that show the labor ...
Market wrap: S&P 500 rallied; semis surge by most in over a year
The S&P 500 rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 3%, and the Russell 2000 ended up 0.9% as a bounce back in beleaguered semiconductors and enhanced confidence the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates...
Federal Reserve holds rates, says “time is drawing near” for cuts
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5%. The 110 economists surveyed by Bloomberg — and 96% odds of holding steady implied by the market — were right. The statement accompan...
All these charts on the US job market are telling the Fed to cut rates
In deciding whether, when, and how much to cut rate s, the Federal Reserve must judge whether the potential for inflation to re-accelerate is more likely, or would be more painful, than the risk of th...
The Federal Reserve is laying the foundation for interest rate relief
Against all odds, more than 500 basis points in rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022 didn’t break the US economy. And at this week’s meeting, the central bank will be able to make the ...
Commodities fall to fresh 2024 lows as China gloom offsets US optimism
A rate-cutting cycle is soon to begin, stabilizing the economy and helping to support more cyclical parts of the equity market like small caps. That’s the new market meta these days. The commodity mar...
Traders see September interest-rate cut as a done deal
Odds derived from the Fed funds futures market — and published by the CME — put a 98% probability on the Fed cutting rates when it meets in September. (That market is just as certain that the US centr...
Debunking the overhyped story that high interest rates fuel inflation
The idea that high interest rates are contributing to higher inflation is in vogue nowadays. The basic line of thinking is that higher interest rates mean more interest income for bondholders, and the...
Home builders bounce hard on rate cut expectations
Share prices for homebuilders are surging amid growing certainty that the Fed has vanquished inflation and rate cuts are on the way. As Luke’s been writing , this is boosting excitement all over the m...