The X-date: The US treasury is running out of money
GoFundMe (treasury edition) The US treasury’s cash balance has dipped below $100bn, further ramping up the pressure on lawmakers to solve the impending national debt crisis. Although it’s volatile (l...
Perfect storm: It's more bad news for first-time homebuyers
Perfect storm Last week the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage passed 7% , compounding the misery for would-be homeowners who now face a perfect storm of higher borrowing costs and still-elevat...
The Inflation Gyration: Energy prices are letting up
Welcome back to day 522 of the inflation story. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.5% in December, down from a reading of +7.1% in November. For the glass-half-full folks: This marks the 6...
War, inflation and oil. How the Russian invasion shook the world.
The "I" word Even before the final chapters of 2021 had been written, one of the main topics for 2022 — inflation — was already emerging. As the impact of pandemic stimulus checks set in, supply-chai...
Shrinking saving rates: Americans are struggling to set money aside
There was some good news on the inflation front yesterday , as the consumer price index (CPI) came in at +7.1% year-on-year, down from the +7.7% figure seen in October. On a month-to-month basis the i...
Bounce: It's back-to-back green months for US stocks
With inflation cooling more than expected , and Fed chair Powell hinting at smaller rate hikes in the near future, Wall Street started getting into the joyful festive spirit. This week the S&P 500 ral...
Inflation vs. wages: Inflation is winning
Cool for the winter Inflation finally showed some evidence of cooling last week, as the October inflation report showed consumer prices rising 7.7%, down modestly from the 8.2% figure seen in Septemb...
Déjà Vu: Taking stock of inflation in America
Déjà vu We wish we didn’t have a calendar invite for our team to check the latest inflation data, but that, sadly, is just where we're at in 2022. The latest Consumer Price Index figures out yesterda...
A love for hiking: The Fed is raising rates at an unprecedented pace
The Fed's 3x3 This week the Federal Reserve signed off on its third consecutive three-quarter point rate hike, lifting the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3-3.25%. That's an unprecedented ...
Spooked: Inflation is scaring investors... again
Spooked "It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know that just ain't so". Those words from Mark Twain were relevant again yesterday as markets digested the latest inflat...
Stock valuations: Where are we now?
"Some pain" The US S&P 500 Index fell some 23% in the first six months of the year, as biting inflation gave policymakers few options but to raise interest rates, and raise them quickly. Over the sum...
Recession, or no recession? The latest economic data, in context
The US economy is in a recession. At least it is if you ask some economists. Agree to disagree The country notched its second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth, with US output contracting a...
Mortgages: Borrowing costs are spiking, but where are they vs. history?
The average interest rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage has hit 5.78% in the US, jumping 0.55% on the week before — which is the sharpest one-week rise since 1987. Cooling off The sharp upward movemen...
State of the union: 4 charts we're watching on the US economy
State of the union The US economy is in an unusual state, and keeping track of the latest data isn't easy, so here are 4 key trends we're watching: Mortgage rates: The average 30-year fixed rate hit ...
The productivity gap: Workers are more efficient, but wages haven't kept up
Yesterday the media got to run its latest monthly ritual; reporting on the US inflation data that, once again, hit a new high — this time with consumer prices rising 8.5% relative to this time last ye...
Release the oil: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is stepping up
President Biden is set to release almost one-third of the United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in an effort to curb rising oil and energy prices, which are feeding inflation throughout th...
Flipped, turned upside down: The yield curve just inverted
The yield curve flipped, turned upside down Yesterday the US yield curve inverted — a sign that historically has been an eerily good predictor of a potential future recession, most recently when it i...
Mortgage rates are rising after years of downward pressure
Welcome trend-seekers, the answer was B, mortgage rates passed through 7% this week (see updated chart from October 27th, 2022). The story below is originally from a newsletter published February 18th...
Mortgage rates are rising after years of downward pressure
More bad news for buyers If you're a prospective first-time house buyer you've had to deal with the fact that your dream home is now likely to be 15-20% more expensive than it was last year. Now your ...
Inflation vs. interest rates: A tale of two trends
When economic data is completely acceptable dinner party conversation, it's probably doing something unusual or scary. And that's exactly where we are with inflation. Yesterday the latest data hit the...